FROM THE DESK OF THE “FUGITIVE” COMMISSIONER
Hello Football Fans,
It was an incredibly historic week in college football based
on results of last weekend's games.
In the NFL, there
are no unbeaten teams after five weeks.
Enjoy,
The Fugitive Commissioner of the FFHL
Enjoy,
The Fugitive Commissioner of the FFHL
[Ed Note: due to unforeseen circumstances, this post from The Commish was posted late. As such, let's see how the FFHL predicted things. Also the football quiz question is back and it's a dozy.
COLLEGE
Expectations were
running high as the season progressed and the polls and media build up the
top-ranked teams. All hell broke loose
over the weekend. So it’s time to check out
the shocking results.
SHOCKERS OF THE PRE-WEEKEND
Two Associated Press
Top 25 teams played before Saturday, and both were favored by more than three
touchdowns.
On Thursday night, AP#2 Oregon
(-21h) faced undefeated Arizona in Eugene,
OR. The AZ Wildcats had beaten the Ducks in Tucson, AZ last year,
42-16 when Oregon
was ranked #5 near the end of the 2013 regular season. This year Arizona
led 24-14 after three quarters, but Oregon
came back and tied the game at 24-24 with 8:21 remaining in regulation
time. But a questionable
“unsportsmanlike conduct” penalty kept a late Wildcats’ touchdown drive alive
for the winning score.
FINAL: AZ 31, OREG
24, and so early in the week college football fans were abuzz with the imminent
shake-up at the top of the college rankings and the CFP possibilities.
Minutia: the stats
for each team were virtually the same (yards, penalties, turnovers); Oregon’s offensive line
is a mess, with a true freshman and a walk-on starting at the two tackle spots.
ARIZONA
is now 5-0, which included a shaky 26-23 win at Texas-San Antonio and then a
“Hail Mary” 49-45 win at home against Cal. Next up for the ‘Cats: a home game vs. USC,
who just got beat last weekend on a “Hail Mary”.
On Friday night, AP#18 BYU (-22) faced Utah State
in Provo, UT.
With the Cougars trailing 21-14 in the 2nd
quarter, BYU lost their star QB Taysom Hill (broken leg) and could muster only
two field goals for the remainder of the game.
FINAL: USU 35, BYU
20, and the Cougar fans’ hopes for an undefeated season sadly disappeared. Plus, BYU alumnus Richard’s straight-up bet
with Utah State alumnus Pete (who didn’t want the
points) was a loser. “Pay up, Mr. C”.
These early
shockers were just a harbinger of the historic weekend that would unfold…….
MORE SHOCKING RESULTS – THE ASSOCIATED
PRESS TOP 19
ELEVEN teams ranked
in the AP Top 19 lost last week (58%), and that included five games that
matched up teams in the top 19 (#3 ALA at #11 MISS, #6 TXAM at #12 Miss.St, #14
STAN at #9 ND, #19 NEB at #10 Mich.St, #15 LSU at #5 AUB). That means five of those 19 teams were
“forced” to win, leaving only three other winners in the Top 19 (#1 FSU vs.
Wake Forest, #7 Baylor at Texas, #13 Georgia vs. Vanderbilt).
Breaking it down
further, THREE of the AP Top 4 teams lost; and, FOUR of the AP Top 6 lost for
the first time since 1990. And, five
of the Top 8 lost for the first time
in NCAA history. The College Football Playoff selection committee suddenly must
completely change their thought process and the direction of their collective
analysis. It’s still early, but Bob S.
and the rest of us are going to have to pencil out new scenarios for which
teams have the best chances to make the 4-team CFP playoffs.
But let’s not get
too excited yet; there are still nine undefeated teams in the new Top
25. Two of those teams must lose this
weekend -- #2 Auburn plays at #3 Mississippi
State and #9 TCU plays at
#5 Baylor; nevertheless, there could still be seven unbeaten Power 5 conference
teams after this weekend.
Speculation is that
there may eventually be a 2-loss team that makes the CFP. Or what about this thought? If there are only three playoff spots for
four 1-loss teams at the end of the regular season, which team would be “odd
man out”? (Notre Dame, Big 10 Ohio State
or Michigan State,
Big XII TCU/Baylor/Oklahoma, ACC Florida State,
PAC-12 Oregon or UCLA or Arizona,
not to mention the SEC logjam in the conference’s West Division-could two SEC
teams get into the playoffs?). Let this
week’s games play out, and then we’ll re-evaluate next week.
Associated Press
TOP 19 LOSERS
AP#2 Oregon
(-21h) lost to visiting Arizona,
31-24. See SHOCKER of Pre-Weekend above.
AP#3 Alabama
(-4) lost at AP#11 Mississippi,
23-17.
AP#4 Oklahoma
(-5) lost at AP#25 TCU, 37-33.
AP#8 UCLA (-13h) lost to visiting Utah, 30-28.
AP#14 Stanford (-2h) lost at Notre
Dame, 17-14.
AP#16 USC (-11h) lost to visiting Arizona State, 38-34, in a wild game in which
the ASU Sun Devils won on the final play of the game – a 47-yard “Hail Mary” TD
pass. Southern Cal was ahead 34-25 after
scoring on a 53-yard TD run with only three minutes remaining in the game, but
ASU matched that on the next play from scrimmage on a 73-yard TD pass to trail only
34-32, setting up the Hail Mary victory.
There were no turnovers in the game.
AP#17 Wisconsin (-8) lost at Northwestern,
20-14.
AP#18 BYU (-22) lost to visiting Utah
State, 35-20. See SHOCKERS above.
And the following
teams were underdog losers, previously ranked in the Top 19:
AP#6 Texas
A&M (+2h) lost at #12 Mississippi
State, 48-31.
AP#15 LSU (+7h) lost at AP#5 Auburn, 41-7.
AP#19 Nebraska
(+7) lost at AP#10 Michigan
State, 27-22.
FBS UNDERDOG WINNERS
Overall, EIGHTEEN
underdogs won their games outright in 57 games, for a 32% upset rate (25% last
week), which included eight teams in the “Top 19” mentioned above (three of the
eleven losers in the Top 19 were underdogs).
Following are the
other ten “upsets”:
On Thursday night, Central Florida +2h won at Houston, 17-12 and Florida International +7 beat visiting Florida
Atlantic.
Purdue +8h won at Illinois, 38-27. The PU Boilermakers snapped their 9-game Big Ten
conference losing streak. The Illini
lost their QB to injury.
Memphis +3h won convincingly at Cincinnati,
41-14.
Kentucky +4 beat visiting South Carolina, 45-38. The SC Gamecocks led 38-24 after scoring on a
TD with 12 minutes remaining in the game, but the UK Wildcats responded to
score three unanswered TD’s including the game-tying TD with 2:46 on the clock
and the game-winning TD 17 seconds later on a “Pick 6” (i.e., interception for
a touchdown).
Air Force +3h beat visiting Navy,
30-21.
Florida +2h won at Tennessee, 10-9. The UT Vols led 9-0 heading into the final
quarter, but the Gators replaced an ineffective Jeff Driskel with freshman QB
Treon Harris, who directed TD and FG drives in the 4th quarter to
help his team pull off the upset. Our
own FFHL handicapper MIGHTY DUCK turned legal age last week and was in Vegas
over the weekend to celebrate; he placed his first-ever sportsbook bet on this
game – his money was donated to the casino, as he bet on Tennessee. Ouch!
California +3 won at Washington State,
60-59 (“Say What!?!”). WSU was ahead
24-10 late in the 2nd quarter, but the visiting CAL Bears kicked a
FG on the last play before intermission and the race was on in the second
half. The host Cougars were still ahead
51-42 after three quarters (even after back-to-back kickoff returns for TD’s by
Cal), but the Good News Bears scored three TD’s in the final stanza, including
the game-winner on a 51-yard TD pass with 3:18 remaining. WSU had a chip-shot 19-yard FG try with 15
seconds remaining to win the game, but it was “no good”. The Washington
State special teams coach
was fired after this loss (no joke). There were no turnovers in the game.
Note: It was a record-setting
day; see the Quiz Question at
end of this letter.
New Mexico +17 won at Texas-San Antonio, 21-9.
Alabama-Birmingham +9 won at Western Kentucky, 42-39.
UPSETS – “NOT QUITE”:
Massachusetts +3h was ahead 41-14 with two minutes
remaining in the 2nd quarter, but allowed host Miami of Ohio to
score before halftime and the floodgates opened. The MIA.OH RedHawks kept the momentum in the
2nd half and scored the game-winning TD with 3 minutes to go. The Minutemen lost the turnover battle, 4-1.
FINAL: MIA.OH 42,
UMASS 41.
It was the
RedHawks’ first win since October of 2012.
AGAINST THE SPREAD
Michigan State (-7) had the game “under
control”, leading 27-3 after three quarters, but visiting Nebraska mounted a
19-point 4th quarter comeback to nearly win the game outright. The Cornhuskers’ final TD was a 62-yard punt
return with 3:22 on the clock to cover ATS.
FINAL: MSU 27, NEB
22, and the Spartans failed to cover ATS by 2 points.
There were four
games that ended up in a TIE against the spread:
Virginia (-5) led 24-3 at halftime, but
allowed visiting Pittsburgh to score 16 unanswered points in the 2nd
half to hold on for the win, 24-19.
Eastern Michigan (+25) lost at Akron, 31-6.
Iowa State (+17) took an early 6-0 lead
at Oklahoma State with two FG’s in the 2nd quarter, but gave up 13
unanswered points in the final three minutes of the first half to trail, 13-6
(controversial at that). It was all OSU
Cowboys in the second half, with Okie
State scoring a TD early
in the 4th quarter to lead 37-13 (covering ATS). But for the second week in a row, the ISU
Cyclones scored a “meaningless” TD with less than one minute remaining in
regulation play to not lose ATS. FINAL: OSU 37, ISU 20.
Michigan (+2) lost at Rutgers,
26-24. Yes, it’s true Wolverine fans.
NFL
There were only two
unbeaten teams heading into last weekend, and both of them lost in Week
#5 to fall to 3-1 (CIN and AZ, both of whom were coming off a “bye” week). There are no undefeated teams in the NFL;
parity in professional football is thriving.
There are still two
winless teams after Week #5, Jacksonville
(0-5) and Oakland
(0-4).
NFL UNDERDOG WINNERS
Overall, only THREE
underdogs won outright in 15 NFL games, for a 20% upset rate in the 5th week of
the regular season (38.5% upsets last week).
Cleveland (+2h) trailed 28-3 during the first
half at Tennessee,
but produced an historic comeback to prevail 29-28. Believe it or not, the Browns broke the
all-time NFL record for overcoming the greatest deficit in victory by a road
team.
Titans’ QB Jake
Locker was injured (again) in the second quarter.
Buffalo (+7) benched QB E.J. Manuel and started recently-signed veteran QB
Kyle Orton against the Lions in Detroit. He had been 4-0 as a starter in games against
the Lions, and he extended his streak to five, leading the Bills to a comeback
victory, 17-14. Buffalo was behind 14-0 in the first half,
but eventually Dan Carpenter kicked a 58-yard FG with 9 seconds remaining in
the game to give his team its first lead of the game and a win. BUF Bills defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz
(head coach for Detroit
last year), was carried off the field in a controversial celebration in front
of the home crowd.
Detroit’s
kicker Alex Henery was 0-for-3 on Sunday and was cut this week (he was 1-for-5
on the season); his replacement will be former Denver kicker Matt Prater, who is just
finishing up his 4-game suspension for a substance abuse violation and was cut
by the Broncos last week. Prater was
originally signed by Detroit
in 2006 as an undrafted free agent, and holds the all-time record for longest
successful FG of 64 yards (in the Mile High thin air, December 2013).
New England (+1h) crushed previously
unbeaten Cincinnati, 43-17, in the friendly
confines of Gillette Stadium in Foxborough,
MA. The Patriots had just been humiliated on
Monday Night Football six days earlier in Kansas
City, 41-14.
Speculation that Tom Brady is too old (38) and that the NE Pats dynasty
is over in the AFC East was a bit premature, I’m sorry to have to say.
“UPSETS” – NOT QUITE
Tampa Bay
(+10) was behind early in New
Orleans, but mounted a huge comeback and was ahead
31-20 after scoring a TD early in the 4th quarter. After that, the NOR Saints tied the game by
the end of regulation with a TD (missed 2-point conversion), a safety, and a FG
(2:30 on the clock). New Orleans won the coin toss and drove 80
yards in 12 plays for the winning score, and the Buccaneers’ offense didn’t get
a chance to retaliate.
FINAL: NOR 37, TB
31 (OT)
Houston (+6h) was tied with host Dallas,
17-17, with the Cowboys lined up on the last play in regulation time for the
potential winning 53-yard FG. The kick
was “no good” – overtime. The HOU Texans
won the coin toss, got the ball but their first drive stalled. On the ensuing drive, Dallas marched into field goal range and this
time Dan Bailey kicked the game-winner from 49 yards.
FINAL: DAL 20, HOU
17 (OT)
AGAINST THE SPREAD
Philadelphia (-7, favored by a
touchdown and extra point) was leading 34-7 after scoring a TD with 2 minutes
remaining in the 3rd quarter, at which time I arrived at home and
turned on the TV to watch the game. I
learned that the Eagles had earlier scored on a blocked punt and a recovered a
fumble in the end zone to help build up that lead. The visiting STL Rams proceeded to get the
“triple backdoor cover” by scoring three unanswered and “meaningless” TD’s in
the next 12 minutes to lose only 34-28.
Philly failed to cover ATS by 1 point, and The Fugitive, Moore Money,
and Mighty Duck all lost that game in the FFHL pool. I’m not very smart, but at least I didn’t put
any real money on those meatheads from the “City of Brotherly Love”. Guess we should have bet on the road underdog
Lambs, who are forced to play their 3rd string QB, undrafted Austin
Davis, due to injuries.
FFHL RESULTS – WEEK FIVE
Overall, we
FFHL’ers had our best week of the year – not great, but improving – as we
posted 44-37-3 (54.2%) ATS. In college
picks, we were just OK at 25-23-3 ATS (52.0%); but in the NFL we had another decent
week at 19-14-0 ATS (57.6%). This week
we only selected 13 underdogs out of 84 total picks. Of our 2 ‘dog picks in the NFL, we were 1-1-0
ATS; and our 11 college ‘dog picks were a stupendous 9-2 ATS (81.8%).
FFHL LOP-SIDED
and CONTESTED PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD (ATS)
Listed below is a
breakdown of some of our significant picks.
ATS
Picks
Team For-Against Result / Unsolicited comments
In our 51 college
picks, we had only SIX contrary picks.
In our 33 NFL
picks, we had ZERO contrary picks.
Oklahoma -5 at TCU 5-0 LOSS,
Horned Frogs win outright, 37-33
Baylor -14h at Texas 4-0 WIN, BU Bears win 28-7 to cover ATS by 6½
Notre Dame +2h vs.
STAN 4-0 WIN, Irish “upset” Stanford at home, 17-14
Alabama -4 at Ole Miss 3-2 LOSS,
Rebels knock off Tide 23-17
Miss St -2h vs. TXAM 3-1 WIN,
MSU Bulldogs dominate, 48-31
UCLA -13h vs. Utah 3-1 LOSS, Bruins lose outright, 30-28
Auburn -7h vs. LSU 2-1 WIN, home Tigers beat road Tigers, 41-7
SEA Seahawks -7 at
WSH 5-0 WIN, late FG secures cover ATS in 27-17 win
NY Giants -4 vs.
ATL 4-0 WIN, Gnats 3rd win in a row,
30-20
SD Chargers -6h vs.
NYJ 4-0 WIN, San Diego
bolts past Jets, 31-0
PHI Eagles -7 vs.
STL 3-0 LOSS, 34-7 lead evaporates in 34-28 victory
PIT Steelers -6h at
JAX 3-0 WIN, Pittsburgh
covers ATS by 1½ with 16-9 win
CUMULATIVE RECORDS AGAINST THE SPREAD
(ATS) and STRAIGHT UP
COLLEGE – 6th week (FFHL WEEK #5)
ATS STRAIGHT-UP
Record
Record
FAVORITES 22-31-4 (42.1%) 39-18 (68.4%)
HOME TEAMS 25-28-4 (47.4%) 36-21 (63.2%)
COLLEGE - CUMULATIVE (after 6 weeks)
ATS STRAIGHT-UP
Record
Record
FAVORITES 130-150-8 (46.5%) 221-68 (76.5%)
HOME TEAMS 127-144-4 (46.9%) 164-112
(59.4%)
NFL – 5th week (FFHL WEEK #5)
ATS STRAIGHT-UP
Record
Record
FAVORITES 8-7-0 (53.3%) 12-3
(80.0%)
HOME TEAMS 7-8-0 (46.7%) 11-4
(73.3%)
NFL - CUMULATIVE (after five weeks)
ATS STRAIGHT-UP
Record
Record
FAVORITES 36-39-1 (48.0%) 49-27 (64.5%)
HOME TEAMS 34-40-1 (46.0%) 47-28 (62.7%)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL POLLS
Once again, the AP
and USA Today polls are quite similar, although last weekend’s “upsets” shook
up the consensus a bit. Several teams
are ranked three spots different in the Top 25 [TCU AP#9 & USA#12; Arizona
AP#10 & USA#13; Stanford
AP#25 & USA#22; Utah AP#24 & USA#27].
And the new FWAA Super
16 pretty much mirrors the Top 16 of the AP Poll.
After six weeks of
college football, there are virtually two teams getting the #1 votes in the two
main polls (last week’s numbers are in parentheses):
Rank AP
#1 Rank USA #1 Rank
AP Votes USA Votes FWAA
Florida State 1 (1) 35 (27) 1 (2) 44 (26) 2 (2)
Auburn 2 (5) 23
(0) 2 (5) 16 (0) 1
(5)
Miss St T3
(12) 2 (0) 6
(14) 0
(0) 4 (12)
Ole Miss T3 (11) 0 (0) 4
(11) 0 ( 0) 3
(10)
Baylor 5 (7) 0 (0) 3
(6) 1 ( 0) 5 ( 7)
And for comparison,
these are former Top 4 teams that lost last weekend:
Alabama
7 (3) 0
(13) 7 ( 1) 0 (15) 7
( 3)
Oklahoma 11
(4) 0 ( 7) 9 (3) 0
(14) 11 (4)
Oregon 12
(2) 0
(13) 11 (4) 0 ( 7) 10 (1)
It’s still TOO
EARLY to get too excited!
We can do a more
detailed analysis of the polls when the CFP selection committee convenes and
comes out with their first preliminary poll results on October 28th
(in three weeks).
OTHER NEWS and MINUTIA
CATCH-UP FROM LAST
WEEK
When Notre Dame (-9) played Syracuse at
MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ two weekends ago, Irish QB Everett
Golson completed 25 passes in a row (even though he didn’t have that great of a
game overall; two fumbles, two INT’s including a Pick Six). He fell one short of the all-time NCAA record
of 26 straight completions when he missed his running back flaring out of the
backfield into the flat area (most of his passes during the streak were of the
dink-and-dunk variety, but nonetheless it was an impressive streak). FINAL: ND 31, SYR 15
Question: Who holds
the all-time NCAA record of 26, set during the 2011 season?
Don’t think too
long on this one; the QB from a non-Power 5 conference team is rather obscure.
Answer is below in
Quiz Question section.
2015 NFL DRAFT
Next year’s NFL
draft will not be held at Radio City Music Hall
in New York City. It has been moved to Chicago, at the Auditorium Theater of
Roosevelt University. Los Angeles was the runner-up. The draft will be held from April 30-May 2,
one week later than “normal”, but one week earlier than last year (with failed
experiment, having the draft pushed back to Mother’s Day weekend). The 1st round will be held on
Thursday night, April 30, Rounds 2 & 3 will be on Friday night, and Rounds
4-7 will be on Saturday, May 2, 2015.
LOOKING AHEAD – selected games, not the
full slate
COLLEGE FOOTBALL - FFHL WEEK #6 (college
7th week)
Thursday #31 BYU (+3h) at Central Florida
Oct 9th
Friday Washington State (+17) at #25 Stanford
Oct 10th San Diego
State (-6) at New Mexico
Fresno State
(-10h) at UNLV
Saturday #12
Oregon (-2h) at
#18 UCLA Loser will have two
PAC-12 losses
Oct 11th #2
Auburn (-2h) at #3T Mississippi
State Battle
of unbeaten SEC West
#3T Ole Miss (+2h) at #14 Texas A&M Another big game in SEC West
#9 TCU (+8h) at #5 Baylor Battle of unbeaten Big XII teams
#13 Georgia (-3) at #23 Missouri SEC
East matchup
#11 Oklahoma (-14h) vs. Texas
(neutral site Dallas) Red
River Rivalry
#30
LSU (-1) at Florida
Penn
State (+1) at Michigan Yes,
the Wolverines are favored
#29 Louisville (+10h) at #26 Clemson
North Carolina (+17) at #6 Notre Dame
Duke (+4) at #22 Georgia Tech GT Yellowjackets are still unbeaten
#19 East Carolina (-15)
at S. Florida ECU only ranked non-Power 5
Cincinnati (+14h) at Miami.FL
Colorado State
(-2) at Nevada
Wyoming
(+4) at Hawaii
Bowling
Green (-1) at Ohio
U.
Miami
of Ohio (+14) at Akron
NFL WEEK #6 – SELECTED GAMES
BYE WEEKS: Kansas City,
New Orleans
Thursday Indianapolis (-2h) at Houston
Oct 9th
Sunday Divisional
Matchups:
Oct 10th New England (-2h) at Buffalo
Pittsburgh
(+2) at Cleveland
Detroit
(NL yet) at Minnesota
Jacksonville
(NL yet) at Tennessee
San
Diego (-6h) at Oakland
NY Giants (+2h) at Philadelphia
Other interesting
matchups:
Carolina
(+7) at Cincinnati
Green
Bay (-3h) at Miami
Dallas (+8) at Seattle
Monday San Francisco (-3h) at St. Louis
Oct 11th
QUIZ QUESTIONS
Question from CATCH-UP section above:
Who holds the all-time NCAA record of 26 straight pass completions?
Answer:
Dominique Davis, QB
for East Carolina in 2011.
QUESTION #1: Washington State
quarterback Connor
Halliday set the new FBS passing record last Saturday night, throwing for
734 yards against Cal (49 of 70, 6 TD, 0 INT).
Who previously held the record?
HINT: It happened
in 1990 (in Tokyo!).
ANSWER #1:
David Klinger (Houston U.)
set the previous record (716 yards) in 1990 against Arizona
State in a game played in Tokyo.
On Saturday, WSU QB
Halliday wasn't the only quarterback who had a big game. Opponent QB Jared
Goff (Cal Golden Bears) completed 47 of 53 passes for 527 yards and five
touchdowns, also without an interception.
Combined, Halliday
and Goff set a new single-game FBS record for total passing yards (1,261). The
previous record (1,253 passing yards) was set in a game between TCU (690) and
Houston (563) on Nov. 3, 1990. In that game, TCU quarterback Matt Vogler and
Klinger attempted a record 135 passes.
No comments:
Post a Comment